The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on air transport passenger markets : implications for selected EU airports based on time series models analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a drastic reduction in air traffic passengers, especially during the period when the EU countries introduced a lockdown. Even after the relaunch of airline operators, passenger traffic did not return to the pre-pandemic trend. The aim of the study was to estimate the difference between the demand that was observed during the pandemic, and the demand that was forecast based on the pre-pandemic trend. The calculations were made for airports in selected EU countries. The first method was seasonality indicators, using quarterly data for 2015–2021. In the multiplicative model of seasonal fluctuations, the method of determining the seasonality indicators was used, based on the quotient of empirical values and the value of the trend. The one-name period trend method was used in the next step, then Fourier spectral analysis was applied. In the context of forecasts for the individual quarters of 2020 and 2021, all models indicate a further growing trend in the demand for passenger transport, which could have been observed if the COVID-19 pandemic had not occurred. As a result of the pandemic, the number of passengers handled at airports has significantly decreased. In the third quarter of 2021, freight growth was already noticeable, with the exception of Netherland, where a marked decline was recorded.