Contradictory effect of climate change on American and European populations of Impatiens capensis Meerb. : is this herb a global threat?

CC BY-NC Logo DOI

Aims: The present study is the first-ever attempt to generate information on the potential present and future distribution of Impatiens capensis (orange balsam) under various climate change scenarios. Moreover, the differences in bioclimatic preferences of native and non-native populations were evaluated.

Location: Global.

Taxon: Angiosperms.

Methods: A database of I. capensis localities was compiled based on the public database – the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), herbarium specimens, and a field survey in Poland. The initial dataset was verified, and each record was assigned to one of two groups – native (3664 records from North America) or non-native (750 records from Europe and the western part of North America). The analyses involved bioclimatic variables in 2.5 arc-minutes of interpolated climate surface downloaded from WorldClim v. 2.1. MaxEnt version 3.3.2 was used to conduct the ecological niche modeling based on presence-only observations of I. capensis. Forecasts of the future distribution of the climatic niches of the studied species in 2080–2100 were made based on climate projections developed by the CNRM/CERFACS modeling and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC-6).

Main conclusions: Distribution models created for “present time” showed slightly broader potential geographical ranges of both native and invasive populations of orange balsam. On the other hand, some areas (e.g. NW Poland, SW Finland), settled by the species, are far outside the modeled climate niche, which indicates a much greater adaptation potential of I. capensis. In addition, the models have shown that climate change will shift the native range of orange balsam to the north and the range of its European populations to the northwest. Moreover, while the coverage of niches suitable for I. capensis in America will extend due to climate change, the European populations will face 31–95 % habitat loss.

Tytuł
Contradictory effect of climate change on American and European populations of Impatiens capensis Meerb. : is this herb a global threat?
Twórca
Rewicz Agnieszka
Słowa kluczowe
alien plants; climate change; ecological niche modeling; Impatiens capensis; invasive species; plant biogeography; species distribution model
Słowa kluczowe
obce gatunki roślin; zmiany klimatyczne; modelowanie nisz ekologicznych; niecierpek pomarańczowy; gatunki inwazyjne; biogeografia; model rozmieszczenia gatunku
Współtwórca
Myśliwy Monika ORCID 0000-0001-6573-6455
Rewicz Tomasz
Adamowski Wojciech
Kolanowska Marta
Data
2022
Typ zasobu
artykuł
Identyfikator zasobu
DOI 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157959
Źródło
Science of the Total Environment, 2022, vol. 850, [br. s.], 157959
Język
angielski
Prawa autorskie
CC BY-NC CC BY-NC
Dyscyplina naukowa
Nauki o Ziemi i środowisku; Dziedzina nauk ścisłych i przyrodniczych
Kategorie
Publikacje pracowników US
Data udostępnienia26 sty 2023, 15:26:50
Data mod.26 sty 2023, 15:26:50
DostępPubliczny
Aktywnych wyświetleń0