Diagnosing and forecasting Port Services on the example of Świnoujście Ferry Terminal

The paper proposes tools for diagnosing and forecasting port activities related to vehicle ferry transport on the example of the largest terminal located in the southern part of the Baltic Sea. It is a methodological proposal for a decision support system (DSS), subsequently used in practice. Diagnosing and forecasting port activities by entities managing ports is an obligation stemming directly from the Act on Ports and Harbours. Due to the size of operations, it is also necessary to undertake actions leading to accurate diagnoses and forecasts (e.g. concerning cargo volumes). Port authorities do not have specialized units within their structure to deal with this issue and while the analysis and reporting of cargo handling activities is carried out properly, the diagnosis and forecasting is usually done without a scientific approach. The article describes selected research tools (diagnoses and forecasts) based on statistical-econometric inference. The purpose of this paper is to propose specific tools for diagnosing and then forecasting the operation of ferry terminals for the need of decision support (DSS). The reason for undertaking the research was an inquiry of the ferry terminal in Świnoujście concerning the rationale for launching a new ferry (new supply).