Exploring the effects of oil prices on road freight in Poland amidst COVID-19 and Russo-Ukrainian war

Destructive market forces are multiplying as the world faces the worst global energy crisis in history. The continuing economic downturn and fluctuating oil prices, triggered by OPEC+’s plan to reduce supply, are slowing down global oil demand. In this respect, the situation in the transport services market is changing. Changes in the price of oil are indirectly influencing the formation of wholesale diesel prices; consequently, road freight should also change. However, are these changes correlative and do oil price fluctuations directly affect freight rate changes? This article aims to investigate the correlation between fluctuations in oil prices on world markets and their impact on wholesale diesel prices and, thus, the development of net road freight in Poland. In the study, the authors developed a model called “fuel adjustment,” containing the fluctuations in wholesale diesel prices, which were taken into account in determining the average deviation in the road freight level over the analyzed period. In this way, it became possible to determine the amount of road freight and its fluctuations depending on the development of oil prices on world markets. The results of the study confirm that there is a strong and positive relationship between the analyzed variables. When the prices of crude oil on world markets fall, this should be followed by reductions in diesel prices in individual countries, including Poland. Consequently, the amount of road freight should also have a downward trend. Will this happen?